Peter Cecchini, Principal and Director of Research at Axonic Capital, was featured in a recent PitchBook analysis examining how the ongoing conflict with Iran is reshaping credit conditions across consumer and business lending markets.
With oil prices surging sharply since fighting began in late February, Cecchini warned of a potential “confluence of problems” forming across lending channels. He noted that higher risk-free yields, combined with existing stress in the private credit market, could pressure banks to tighten lending standards and increase borrowing costs for consumers and businesses alike.
On the sector level, Cecchini pointed to consumer-facing businesses, including subprime lenders, retailers and homebuilders, as particularly vulnerable to the oil shock stemming from the conflict.
Axonic continues to monitor the interaction between rising commodity prices and tightening capital conditions across leveraged credit, private lending and consumer-facing markets.
Click here to read the full analysis.